Don’t be fooled by following the money. Just because the betting money comes in on one side in key playoff games this time of year, doesn’t mean anyone knows. A year ago, the money came to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game in large part because they were a home dog and 16-1. The Steelers lost at home, 41-27. In last year’s quarterfinal round, the Colts were in New England, a team with a decimated secondary. Money flooded the Colts and the game to ‘top’ the total. It also didn’t happen when the Colts lost 20-3. And two years ago, few thought the upstart Panthers could go very far, until they won at Philadelphia in the NFC Championship game to advance to their first Super Bowl.
Ahh, the Panthers… And here they are again, one win away from their second Super Bowl. The image of Carolina in sports betting circles in recent seasons is that they are a team to back as an underdog and fade as a favorite. The 2003 team that went to the Super Bowl was 6-2 in a row, 7-1 against the difference as an underdog! In 2004 they didn’t make the playoffs, but the Panthers were 4-4 SU, 7-1 ATS as dogs. This season? Carolina is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS as an underdog.
If you like finding money line dogs who have a chance to win, Carolina has certainly been magnificent under John Fox. The Panthers are 14-10 SU, 18-2 ATS as a dog the last three seasons. What does this Carolina team have? First, they have talent. After that 1-15 season in 2001, Fox came in and rebuilt the defense and got lucky with Jake Delhomme. Panther QB may not be a star, but he has been very good. Second, Fox also likes traditional, conservative football, which partly explains why his Panthers have been better dogs than favorites. It’s often too much to ask Carolina to chalk the number up, as this team doesn’t explode offensively. Rather, Fox prefers to get a lead and then go to the ground game to protect him. For him, a 13-6 victory is as good as 27-13.
But Carolina’s expertise will be tested by Mike Holmgren’s Seahawks. Seattle has an excellent record at home this season, where they haven’t lost yet (also 7-2 ATS).
The big story for the Seahawks is health. Seattle RB Shaun Alexander, the league’s leading rusher, wasn’t a factor last week after suffering a concussion. He’s a big part of this ball-control offense. There are many other parallel stories as well. For example, Seahawks tackle Sean Locklear will play in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game despite being arrested over the weekend and charged with misdemeanor assault. Good time, boy!
Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers missed his second day of practice Thursday with a shoulder injury and is still listed as questionable. Carolina could use its ace on the defensive line, as the Panthers have played most of the season without DE Kris Jenkins. But I think Peppers will be ready to play on Sunday. Also, 26-year-old CB Ken Lucas from Carolina played four seasons with the Seahawks and will face his old team on Sunday. He tied Carolina’s Chris Gamble for the NFC lead with six interceptions last season. But the Seahawks, faced with salary-cap issues, decided not to offer Lucas much money.
But perhaps the best part of the NFC Championship game is the backgrounds of the two quarterbacks. The Seahawks’ Matt Hasselbeck was a sixth-round pick out of Boston College, while the Panthers’ Jake Delhomme was not drafted at all out of Louisiana-Lafayette. So much for those who think they need a first-round pedigree to build a team around! Think of Jim Druckenmiller, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown and Ryan Leaf as you watch Sunday’s game. It’s not about where you get selected, it’s about how hard you work at your craft. Good luck as always… Al McMordie.